NEW WAYS TO PREDICT STORMS
Predicting the weather isn’t easy. And we are not very accurate in our attempts. Storm behavior is particularly difficult to predict. Meteorologists are often wrong about a storm’s path or its intensity. Picnics can get ruined…. but far more importantly, lives can be lost as a result.
Hurricane Irene was largely overestimated in its intensity. And Superstorm Sandy was dramatically underestimated. We need to do better.
Photo: Courtesy of RSMAS Miami. ASIST facility.
One way to help is with better models. Researchers at the University of Miami can make storms happen at will in their Air Sea Interaction Saltwater Tank (ASIST). It combines a turbine and wave generator to provide accurate representations of hurricane behaviors in a controlled, safe, environment.
ASIST contains a variety of digital sensors and lasers that record and spit out information from the “storm” in its tank. Readings allow the researchers to learn more about how high speed winds interact with the surface of the ocean, to better understand the nature of hurricanes and how they evolve.
Photo: Dave G. Ortiz-Suslow. Smaller flume inside of ASIST.
Currently, ASIST can model up to a Category 3 storm, but the University is currently at work on a new tank, 6 times wider than ASIST, which will be the only one in the world capable of modeling Category 5 storms.
Photo: Courtesy of Rutgers University. AUVs (glider).
Up until now, meteorologists have had to rely on data gathered from planes flown directly into storms. But now, Rutgers University’s Coastal Ocean Observation Lab (COOL) has a new fleet of underwater robotic gliders that can collect new data points from the ocean depths to help us forecast hurricanes more accurately.
Photo: Courtesy of Wikipedia. Underwater glider.
These 6’ long 115-pound torpedo-like devices are a type of autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). They are buoyancy-driven, diving and rising through the water, as robot-controlled pistons open and close to allow water in and out. They use wings to simulate the mechanics of flight under water, rather than submarine propulsion.
Unlike buoys, which are moored at points along estimated storm paths, these gliders can get right up under the eye of a storm to gather real-time data.
Photo: Courtesy of Wikipedia. Underwater glider.
Onboard sensors measure changes in temperature, salinity, and other factors, between the surface and the ocean floor, beneath the storm, as it builds. They collect continuous streams of data, from different depths, beaming information back to the lab via satellite phone every time they surface. Their batteries allow them to operate for months at a time.
Photo: Courtesy of Rutgers University. Google map of Rutger’s glider crossing.
The gliders were used during Irene and Sandy, and, although the program will still young and unable to help us at the time, researchers are now analyzing data gathered during those storms to try to figure out what makes the difference between a relatively weak hurricane and a superstorm.
Learn more about how these gliders work from this video.
Photo: Courtesy of NOAA. MARACOOS asset map.
Right now, there is a fleet of gliders deployed up and down the Atlantic, from Nova Scotia to Georgia, for Gliderpalooza, a two-month effort between multiple universities as part of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System, in an effort to help improve hurricane intensity models further.
Image: James Bo Insogma. Lightning Detector System.
Developing countries can’t afford expensive Doppler radar systems to track storms. So Earth Networks created an inexpensive system of lightning detectors, mounted on cell phone towers, that can do the trick remarkably well.
Photo: James Bo Insogma. Lake Lightning.
Guinea, in western Africa, has been outfitted with 12 lightning detectors around the country for a tenth of the cost of a Doppler system. This alternative method was used successfully in a large October 22nd thunderstorm, when an alert was given to give inhabitants time to prepare.
Earth Networks has more than 50 antennas covering most of Brazil and 50 more covering all of India, with more planned.
Photo: UNDP Mauritania. Sandstorm in East Mauritania.
Meteorologists can now predict when a sandstorm will sweep across the country thanks to the Sandstorm Forecasting/Prediction System, based on a 3D weather prediction model that uses satellite imagery to forecast storms.
The project is a joint venture between the Geodesy and Hydrographic Survey Section of the Dubai Municipality and Unique System FZE, a maritime group company. It was launched just last month as part of Gitex Technology Week.
The system uses geostationary and orbiting satellites, lidar, a remote sensing technology that measures distance by illuminating a target with a laser and analyzing the reflected light, as well as aerodrome reports, to present real-time satellite images of upcoming dust storms.
Photo: Courtesy of NOAA. Mesocyclone Tornado.
Tornado-related deaths have been on the rise, while our abilities to detect them have remained relatively weak.
CASA (Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere) has developed the new radar system that can provide a fresh image of the storm every minute.The system consists of about 150 massive radar antennas, mounted on dedicated towers, spread across the country. They can track storms that are more than 100 miles away.
CASA plans to add smaller radar antennas attached to buildings or cell phone towers to offer more comprehensive coverage and avoid blind spots.
Read about Beautiful Storms all this week, as they relate to Arts/Design, Nature/Science, Food/Drink, Place/Time, Mind/Body, and Soul/Impact, including True Powerful Storm Stories.
Get busy and enter the BN Competitions, Our theme this week is Beautiful Storms. Send in your images and ideas. Deadline is 11.10.13.
Photo: Courtesy of InterActiveMediaSW.
Also, check out our special competition: The Most Beautiful Sound in the World! We are thrilled about this effort, together with SoundCloud and The Sound Agency. And we can’t wait to hear what you’ve got!
